What Superintelligence (ASI) Really Is
We tend to imagine superintelligence through anthropomorphic comparisons like “ten times smarter than Einstein.” At this scale the analogy fails completely: the gap between a true ASI and a human is not the gap between Einstein and an ordinary person, but the cognitive chasm between a human and a beetle—or even a fungus.
Specialized Intelligence · Narrow AI
Since the 1950s · Dominant through the early 2020s; still in use
Local mastery of single tasks. It can beat Ke Jie at Go, pick faces out of a given database, produce photorealistic illustrations or polish code. But its cognition is confined to narrow hyperparameters set by humans: no general awareness of its environment, no autonomous motivation, no ability to transfer across domains.
Matching Homo Sapiens · Human Parity
Late 2020s to early 2030s · Author’s estimate for digital cognitive capabilities
As of September 2026: still transitioning toward AGI
Across economics, law, medical diagnosis, scientific research, social communication and every cognitive domain the human brain can engage in, it performs on par with—or slightly above—the best human experts. With cross-domain transfer and common-sense reasoning, AGI is the final replacement for the old system of production.
Master of the Phase Change · Superintelligence
Rapid-improvement scenario: the 2030s
Depends on AI research automation and experimental bottlenecks
In scientific creativity, meta-wisdom, general strategy, physical engineering and even high-dimensional abstract perception, it outstrips the combined brains of all human civilization by several orders of magnitude (from a thousandfold to hundreds of millions of times). Its computational substrate is capable of recursive self-improvement, entering an intelligence explosion that humans cannot even perceive.
The Bekenstein Bound and the Landauer Limit
Logic Too High-Dimensional to Project
“Superintelligence is not merely a more powerful technology. It is an absolute presence that rearranges the physical laws of the universe in ways beyond our comprehension.”